Hayter’s article for February 13, 2022
“A happier look at 2040”
Last week, there were a few of you who stuck with me like grim death as I dragged your rears through the horrible predictions for 2040. If you haven’t read the article, don’t. I’m still depressed with my findings.
The research I collected mostly dealt with the earth’s environmental and monetary woes that await those living in 2040. To summarize my findings, there will be a global collapse of society in 2040 that will set us back a century. Pollution levels will never be improved, and resources necessary for progress will not be available. Before ending the piece, I promised to let you in on the good things that others have predicted for 2040.
From what I’ve discovered, it is safe to place your bets on the future of things such as health care, innovations in autos, airplanes, drones, rocketry, environment cleaning devices/ Super 3-D printers, artificial intelligence, and the like. How could anyone anticipate such a thing? Moore’s Law. In 1965, Gordon E. Moore, co-founder of Intel, studied the advancement of technology from the turn of the century to the ‘60s and found, to his satisfaction, that technology doubles each year. Scientists have recently found Moore’s Law to be accurate up to this point. Of course, so much stuff has been secretly invented since 2020 that, unbeknownst to us, technology may be increasing a little more than double.
That aside, in 2020 there were twice as many innovations as in 2019. At the end of 2021, we had four times more innovations than in 2019. In 2022 technology will likely grow 16 times greater than that of 2019. And, get this, at the end of this year, we’ll be 32 times smarter than we were in 2019. Carry out the calculations and you’ll find that our technology will be 67,914,560 times more advanced than it was in 2019… assuming that the global society hasn’t collapsed.
In the area of health, the technology of 3-D printing will be responsible for the innovation of the human heart, viable for transplanting into a human. A cure for Alzheimer's should be available. Another healthy innovation will be discovered in the area of toilets. Any time spent on or in front of your toilet will result in a health checkup. The toilet will have a computer that examines your tinkle or poo and reports its findings. -- “Mr. Hayter, your blood pressure is too high. And, you’ve gotta quit eating those figs! I’m sending this info to your doctor. So be ready, little mister.” -- I’m assuming that the toilet talks to the occupant.
In 2040, the world’s democracies will have banded together for the purpose of sharing technological research. The cooperation will be brought on by economical issues and technological thievery by China and Russia. With fewer stolen secrets, both the Chinese and Russians will take a hit, causing totalitarian governments, except for North Korea, to fizzle out, and democracies to flourish. Interesting. At the rate things are going, I’m not sure the U.S. will be a democracy in 2040.
At the moment, computers are not as smart as man. They’re sharper than this man, but are totally reliant on humans for direction. Not this human. Machines can only find answers by using the rules of a program created by a human. However, by 2040, computer software and hardware will be faster than all get-out. A car designer may create software that reads “Make the vehicle run longer on less fuel.” In a matter of seconds, the computer will find all that can be known about the automobile and communicate with other computers to figure out ideas that scientists and engineers may have never considered.
This process is known as Artificial Intelligence (AI). That means a computer will be able to, gather all the information available from other computers, tweak the data, and then come up with a plan for a vehicle that surpasses anything considered by man.
Most scholars who study such stuff, don’t see Super AI machines being around in 2040. While it’s likely computers will be smarter than us by then, it’s unlikely they’ll have Super Artificial Intelligence. You know, the kind that could make humans want to marry a robot. Hey, I’ve seen the movies.
Some are wisely afraid, that if computers begin to write their own programs, they may refuse to accept the rules established by their creators. The late Stephen Hawking wrote, “Super-intelligence is the last invention of man, and the last challenge mankind will ever have.”
Super-intelligence is predicted to be present in 2060. I would think it could be earlier than that, considering that by 2060 the intelligence of computers will be a gazillion, billion, and 92 times better than in 2019. With that much intelligence AI robots will be mining in space for metals that we don’t have on earth.
I read about a computer program developed in China that allows users to have “Chat Bots” with a computer that sounds like, well whatever you wish them to sound like. Before you start talking to the computer, you have to answer a few multiple-choice questions about yourself. Health, age, gender, likes, dislikes, favorite movies, reading material, religion… Once the interview is over, you’re free to converse with a computer program. It’s advertised as being great for helping the depressed.
One thing they’ve discovered about the mind of today’s computer has no sense of empathy for humans. They’ll probably have that cleared up by 2040.
That’s it! Kay suggests that next week I write about something cuddly, like puppies and kittens. Somewhere between what I just wrote and what Kay suggested I write is a good topic. I’ll flush it out. Speaking of which, I’m rather pleased that I won’t be around to experience the toilet examination.
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